Brexit: the physics of political power

The Brexit negotiations demonstrate the physics of political power - simple facts the Brexiteers don't like.

Brexit is a catastrophe in the making: a human tragedy for the 3-4 million people caught on the wrong side of the Channel, and an economic disaster for Britain waiting to happen.

Yes, the British electorate voted to leave the EU, but it was the choice of the Tory government to go further and decide to exit the Single Market and the Customs Union. Instead, they want a trade deal on their terms, but they should first of all recognise two things.

First, they need to acknowledge that politics is in large part the physics of power. And here the simple fact is that the economy of the remaining EU27 is six times the size of Britain's. Future impediments to trade as a result of Brexit threaten a massive 15% of British GNP, the proportion earned from exporting to the the EU27. But for the EU27 only 3% of their GNP is derived from exports to Britain. Thus London needs a transitional deal in the short term and a trade agreement in the long run much more than Brussels does.

Second, the EU27 are not going to do Britain any favours. In the first instance, they are acting to protect their interests as their declaration makes clear:

“European integration has brought peace and prosperity to Europe and allowed for an unprecedented level and scope of cooperation on matters of common interest in a rapidly changing world. Therefore, the Union’s overall objective in these negotiations will be to preserve its interests, those of its citizens, its businesses and its Member States.”

But it is not just that Britain is weaker than the EU27 and that the states remaining in the EU will not sacrifice their economic advantages for Britain's sake. There is another underlying asymmetry in the negotiations. The British government is desperate to show that Brexit will be a success and that leaving the EU does not carry huge economic costs. The EU, on the other hand, even if it doesn't admit it, wants to demonstrate that withdrawal confers no advantage on the leaving state.

The Brexiteers can say what they wish and pretend that the negotiations are between two equal teams: team UK and team EU27. They can convince themselves of anything for the right-wing populist press, but nothing changes the underlying structure of the power situation.

And to add to that, Mssrs. Davis, Johnson and Fox can hardly complain of the EU27 serving their own self-interest (acting as gang in their terms) as their own reasons for supporting Brexit, however miscalculated, are based on making a virtue of selfishness. So when Minister Liam Fox complains of ‘blackmail’ by the EU27, he has no moral case; all he is doing is recognising that the UK, as the weaker party, is losing out.