The coalition of Middle England and working class voters which brought Blair victory in 1997 has fallen apart. Middle England has Cameron; and working people see nothing for them in New Labour.
In the industrial towns of the north and much of the inner city Labour is likely to be the leading party and will, with the help of first part the post, be assured of a certain quota of seats.
If Labour were challenged on the left, such as SDP in Germany is confronted by Die Linke, then the story would be different, but sadly there is no serious Left Party in Britain.
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